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What Is Really Happening In the Hawaii Real Estate Market - October 2006

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Oahu

Before I begin to explain what is happening with Oahu Single Family Homes I would like to take a minute to acquaint you with a more meaningful map above that will better explain what is happening on the Island of Oahu. Previously I only used arrows to indicate current Market Trends. Beginning with this issue I will still use arrows but they will based upon BOTH SFH's and Condos. How they are doing overall in any particular area. These arrows are based upon a ‘cleaner' method of data by giving you a ratio of Total Homes/Condos in Escrow as compared to Total Inventory of both categories that is For Sale. I believe this new approach will benefit everyone immensely. Below are just some of the Neighborhoods with the Current Percentages for Sept. 22nd. '06:
  • Oahu SFH % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 22%
  • Hawaii Kai SFH % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 19%
  • Oahu Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 19%
  • Hawaii Kai Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 13%
  • Kailua SFH % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 17%
  • Mililani SFH % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 25%
  • Kailua Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 27%
  • Mililani Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 28%
  • Kaneohe SFH % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 20%
  • Ewa Beach Area SFH % of Total Inventory For in Escrow 21%
  • Kaneohe Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 26%
  • Ewa Beach Area Condo % of Total Inventory For Sale in Escrow 21%
If the arrow is up then this means that the % in Escrow vs. Total Inventory For Sale is within acceptable points of the Oahu Overall Avg. for Condos. In the above chart you will see the Avg. for Oahu SFH is 22% and Condos 19%.

If the arrow is down then this means the % is below the Oahu Average and it means that there is much more Inventory For Sale as compared to what is in Escrow.

Subsequently, if you a Buyer you want to take the opportunity to explore properties where there is DOWN ARROW. This means there is way too much Inventory For Sale and your Negotiation Power is increased immensely. If you are a Seller , you better start thinking about getting your place SOLD! It is only going to get worse over the next few years. Of course the opposite is true if the ARROWS are UP. This means the % of Inventory in Escrow is much higher vs. the Total Inventory For Sale. If you are Buyer in this case you better BUY it when you see it before someone else does! If you are Seller chances are your ability to get a higher price for your property is greater!

Oahu SFH

Total Inventory For Sale in Oahu SFH went up in the last 22 days by +21% from Sept. 1st. The amount of Homes For Sale is currently 1982. The amount of Homes for Sale in June was 1644.





The Median Price Sold in Aug. was $635,000. In May'06 it was $630,000. As of Sept. 22 the Median Sold Price is $689,000. DON'T THINK PRICES ARE DROPPING?? THINK AGAIN! This is a result of Higher Priced Inventory Selling. The number of SFH's Sold in Aug. was 346. In June it was 363. This is a +5% Increase in Homes Sold since June. As of Sept. 22nd. the total Homes Sold is 250. The rate of Solds for Sept. vs. Aug.'06 is now +6%. Sales are still VERY STRONG! The average SOLD D.O.M. was 63 Days.

IMPORTANT:

Please remember, this is about Oahu in GENERAL! EACH NEIGHBORHOOD IS DIFFERENT! Hawaii Kai SFH's are NOT a good investment right now. Way too much Inventory For Sale vs. Demand. Hawaii Kai Condos in short... .are a Disaster! The Famous North Shore a year ago was going up in Values 100% every 6 months! Now the North Shore is a Total Disaster in terms of For Sale Inventory vs. Demand. Waikiki Condos are a Real Mess and Mililani is SOLID GOLD!

If you take the time to REALLY LOOK AT THE MAP ABOVE you begin to Clearly see what is happening on an Island Trend... .Buyers are snapping up Bargains! They are shopping and buying in Lower Priced Neighborhoods and those who want the trendy, usually more Expensive Neighborhoods... ..ARE WAITING!

Oahu Condos/Town Homes

Inventory For Sale as of Sept. 22 is 2745 units. At the end of Aug.'06 total Inventory For Sale was 2707. This is only a +1% increase in Inventory For Sale over the past 22 days. But remember, this is about Oahu in GENERAL! EACH NEIGHBORHOOD IS DIFFERENT! The amount of Solds for the past 22 days is 322 units. This is a rate of Sale Decrease of -19% from Aug. Sold Rate/Day to Sept. 22 Rate/Day.





Is it not interesting that the Rate of Sale for SFH's in Increasing (+5%) while the rate of Sale of Condo's and Town Homes is Decreasing?! (-19%)

Is it not interesting that SFH Inventory For Sale Gain is still going WAY UP?! (+21%) while the rate of Sale of Condo/Town Home Inventory For Sale Gain is almost going FLAT LINE. (+1%)

My overall PREDICTIONS for Condos and the Market in General? Keep your 'eye' on Condo stats. The total Inventory For Sale of Condos in July was 1,001. Now it is 2,751. DEMAND IS GOING TO FURTHER DROP AND INVENTORY FOR SALE IS GOING TO GO BACK UP! Sometime by the end of the year I predict an appreciable drop in Condo Prices For Sale. It is already happening in many Neighborhoods. When the prices finally start coming down overall for Oahu Condos... .the SFH's will HAVE to follow suit at some point! WATCH THOSE COMING CONDO/TOWN HOME STATS!!

REMEMBER... EACH NEIGHBORHOOD IS DIFFERENT! THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT STATS!

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