Before I begin to explain what is happening with Oahu Single Family Homes I would like to take a minute to acquaint you with the map above that will explain what is happening on the Island of Oahu. These arrows are based upon a ratio of Total Homes/Condos in Escrow that have just gone into Escrow with an accepted offer, as compared to Total Inventory of both categories that is For Sale. ACS (Active Continue To Show) data is only at worst case, 3 Days Old. Below are just some of the Neighborhoods with the Current Percentages for Dec. 4th. '06.
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Oahu SFH 22%
Oahu Condo 20%
Kailua SFH 20%
Kailua Condo 41%
Kaneohe SFH 15%
Kaneohe Condo 28%
North Shore SFH 5%
North Shore Condo 18%
Waikiki Condo 16%
Hawaii Kai SFH 21%
Hawaii Kai Condo 12%
Mililani SFH 25%
Mililani Condo 26%
Ewa Beach Area SFH 21%
Ewa Beach Area Condo 15%
Pearl City SFH 30%
Pearl City Condo 53%
Makakilo SFH 20%
Makakilo Condo 21%
If the arrow is up then this means that the % in Escrow (ACS) vs. Total Inventory For Sale is above the Oahu Overall Avg. for Condos. In the above chart you will see the Avg. for Oahu SFH is 20% and Condos 18%.
If the arrow is down then this means the % is below the Oahu Average and it means that there is much more Inventory For Sale as compared to demand that shows what is in Escrow.
Subsequently, if you a Buyer you want to take the opportunity to explore properties where there is DOWN ARROW. This means there is way too much Inventory For Sale and your Negotiation Power is increased immensely. If you are a Seller , you better start thinking about getting your place SOLD! It is only going to get worse over the next few years. Of course the opposite is true if the ARROWS are UP. This means the % of Inventory in Escrow (ACS) is much higher vs. the Total Inventory For Sale. If you are Buyer in this case you better BUY it when you see it before someone else does! If you are Seller chances are your ability to get a higher price for your property is greater!
Total Oahu Inventory For Sale on SFH's went up in the last 30 days by +1%. The amount of Homes For Sale is currently 2,052. The Median Price Sold in October was $635,000. In November '06 it was $610,000. The number of SFH's Sold in October was 293. In November the number of Sales was 293. Almost no difference. It is that time of year that Sales will begin to slow down going into the Fall but this Slow Down is a little more than what is normal for this time of year. The average D.O.M. for October was 49 Days. The D.O.M. for November is 62.This D.O.M. (Days On Market) has pretty much been holding steady for the past 3 months, but now has increased +21% in the past 30 Days. Sales are still strong but waning. 12 Month Median Sold Price is off $30,000 approximately.
Oahu Condos/Town Homes
Oahu Condo/Town Homes are still a good buy as long as you are Buying in a Limited Inventory/High Demand area. Inventory For Sale is 2,679 units. Almost No Change from October. This is a Good Sign as For Sale Inventory is Leveling Off. The amount of Solds for November was 310 units. October was 425. This is a -27% in Condos Sold. So what do we have here? LEVELING INVENTORY AND STEADY SALES. BUT, ... ..Keep an 'Eye' On Those Condo Prices in certain Neighborhoods like Waikiki, Hawaii Kai, and the North Shore. There is Way Too Much Inventory and Low Demand! D.O.M keeps climbing as well and is currently 50 days, but a 12 month year to date difference is a whopping +62% Increase.
Please remember, this is about Oahu in GENERAL! EACH NEIGHBORHOOD IS DIFFERENT! Hawaii Kai Condos are NOT a good investment right now and neither are Condos in Waikiki or the North Shore Area. Way too much Inventory For Sale vs. Demand. Hawaii Kai and Waikiki Condos in short... .are a Disaster, BUT... Hawaii Kai and North Shore Area are IMPROVING! By March'07 I believe Hawaii Kai and North Shore will be good investments, but not Waikiki.
KAILUA CONDOS ARE SOLID GOLD! KAILUA IS THE HIGHEST % ON ISLAND! PEARL CITY/PEARL RIDGE CONDOS ARE SOLID GOLD!
If you take the time to REALLY LOOK AT THE MAP ABOVE you will begin to Clearly see what is happening on an Island Trend... Buyers are snapping up Bargains! They are shopping and buying in Neighborhoods that are holding steady in pricing or dropping. Buyers are NEGOTIATING! Both of the %'s for Hawaii Kai and North Shore have IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS. BUYERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF HIGH INVENTORY, LOW DEMAND AREAS WHERE THEY SEE VALUES WILL INCREASE!
PLEASE NOTE CONDO STATS ARE MINUS THE 200+ UNITS SOLD IN KOOLANI THIS MONTH.
My overall PREDICTIONS for Condos and the Market in General? Keep your 'eye' on Condo stats. The total Inventory For Sale of Condos in July was 1,001. Now it is 2679. DEMAND IS GOING TO DROP FURTHER AND INVENTORY FOR SALE IS GOING TO GO UP even further! Sometime by the end of the year I predict an appreciable drop in Condo Prices For Sale in certain Neighborhoods.
REMEMBER... EACH NEIGHBORHOOD IS DIFFERENT! THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT STATS!
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