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What Is Really Happening In the Hawaii Real Estate Market - February 2007

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% of Total Inventory For Sale with Just Accepted Offers (ACS) as of 1/13/07
Oahu SFH = 18% / Oahu Condo = 19%

If your Neighborhood is not here, don't worry. For those of you who would like a Monthly, Customized, What's Really Happening in The Hawaii Real Estate Market Report for YOUR Neighborhood send me an email along with your Mailing Address. It is Free... .for now!

Aloha All:

The Map

The Map above represents some of the many Neighborhoods on Oahu that identify the % of Inventory that has just gotten an Accepted Offer as compared with Total Inventory For Sale in this Neighborhood. In my 'opinion' this is a much better way to track what is 'really happening' than looking at Sold Data that 'other' Realtors will present to you. The Sold data you have to realize is for the most part 45-50 days Old. The listings with Just Accepted Offers (ACS) are only 3 Days Old. This gives you a Clearer Indication of Demand vs. Supply.

A Few Notes...

I recently attended a Honolulu Board of Realtors members meeting where a Google Executive was invited to explain their 'position' concerning Home Searches across the Nation. Did you know... .?

I was surprised to see that the #1 Search Engine in the Nation for Real Estate is Now Google! What I think you all should be aware of is... Google is a Search Engine. It's function is to provide a direct link to Anyone in Hawaii who WANTS to post their listings For Sale. Does this mean you will see ALL of the Listings Available For Sale?....NO. You will see only those listings from Websites that have agreed to have their information posted on Google. This means if you are Searching For Real Estate On Google you will NOT see EVERYTHING AVAILABLE! Yet... 78% of the Nation uses SEARCH ENGINES TO FIND PROPERTIES.

A much better Website to Search For Listings: www.hicentral.com. This is the Honolulu Board of Realtors Website and in addition to EZ searches there are links to the Latest News and a full page of Lenders, Rates and Contact Information. I would use hicentral.com if I was looking to Buy or Sell a Home.

Selling and Buying

For those of you who would like copies of my articles on the Best Ways to Buy or Sell Property just send me an email and I forward them to you. I can also provide you with the following from my personal experiences:

  • The Best Lenders
  • The Best ENTOMOLOGISTS (These are Termite Inspectors)
  • The Best Home Inspectors who are CERTIFIED

Condo Sales

The Ala Moana Hotel has released 1,126 Condos that Sold this last period so I am taking them OUT of the Condo Stats so that do not miscue our Data and we will see True Condo Stats.

Comments and Questions on My Articles

When I have pulled my Webpage on Oceanic I have noticed that some of you have posted comments. Thank you. I appreciate it. However, when reading these comments I cannot reply to your questions unless you specifically email me at my address Mikeg@Hawaii.rr.com. Thank you.

Oahu Inventory For Sale

Overall Inventory For Sale during this period fell. SFH's -4% and Condos -6%. Not a significant drop, but a drop. I don't think much about these figures as we are talking about the 'Holidays' when most Sellers who 'Really' had to sell and didn't took their properties Off The Market and will either wait for Spring to Re-Sell them or they have Rented Them. The Withdrawns and Expired Listings For Sale which I insist you need to pay attention to have been Significant.

Sales for SFH's are off slightly from the previous period by -7%. Total SFH Sales this period were 256. Unfortunately because of timing and the flood of Ala Moana Hotel Sold units to the Market, followed by the same flood from Koolani in December, I cannot provide you with an accurate picture of the Condo Market right now. I will be able to do this on Feb. 5th for those of you who need this info just email me.

As you can see from the 'Total Picture' graphs above the Median Price Sold for both Condos and SFH's is going 'Flat Line.' This is Oahu in General. I often get questions from prospective Buyers at my Open Houses that are ONLY following this trend and more specifically the Mainland Trend. YOU CANNOT DO THIS.

First off, we are NOT the Mainland. Yes, the trend in the Mainland is concerning and does not point to a great future in Price Appreciation, but remember, this is the Mainland. We are on an ISLAND. Each Neighborhood is different just as it is in the Mainland. Always remember, it really gets down to How Old the Neighborhood is and whether or not this Neighborhood can provide additional Newly Built Inventory For Sale. Can San Francisco provide a influx of New Construction for Homes and add to the Inventory For Sale? No. Neither can Kailua, Kaneohe, etc. Places where there is NO ADDITIONAL LAND AVAILABLE TO ADD INVENTORY. These areas will NOT drop in price vs. in the middle of No Where in Oklahoma. (No Offense intended) The norm is, if you buy in areas of High Demand, No Additional Inventory can be built ( There is a Moratorium on High Rises in Kailua) your property values will GO UP! Not down. Look at the Ewa Areas and Kapolei where even now they are talking about adding yet another Major City of all new homes, schools, etc. There is an abundance of land here. The infrastructure will be provided by these developers and City & County APPROVED, because they provide JOBS and TAX REVENUE. YOU DO NOT WANT TO INVEST IN THESE AREAS!

Finally, someone is asking... "Maybe we don't want all this Construction and Added Inventory out by Turtle Bay." Gee... No Roads, No Schools, No Hospital, No Sewage Plant... More Traffic. What you think?! Da! I live in Kailua and this place is 'Nuts' as far as the amount of Density we are achieving. If you try to walk across Hahani St. in Kailua where the Post Office, Longs, Macy's, Starbucks, Don Quijote (Holiday Mart!) is... even if you are IN A CROSSWALK... you stand a Very Good Chance of Getting RUN OVER! Like some of my Friends here in Kailua... maybe it wouldn't be such a bad idea if Kailua SEPARATED FROM THE STATE!

Please look at these graphs... Do you see any similarities? YES! If you are going to Buy... do it between late Oct. and March. You will have greatest Negotiation Power.

If you are going to Sell... do it between April and August. You will get a Better Price!

My Crystal Ball

I don't have one!

But... I think we will see a steady rise in Inventory For Sale through June on both Condos and SFH's. I think Sales will remain Very, Very Strong. It will continue for a LONG TIME to be a BUYER'S MARKET. Please don't look for prices to appreciate. They are NOT going to! They are going to remain FLAT LINE and go DOWN in Neighborhoods that have too much Inventory and can STILL add more new ones.

If you have questions or need a MONTHLY CUSTOMIZED REPORT on any Neighborhood... JUST EMAIL ME... mikeg@hawaii.rr.com.

If your property is listed, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other Brokers. We will cooperate fully. This publication is neither endorsed by RE/Max or RE/Max Kai Lani. The opinions and information are only those opinions of the author. Statistics are from the Honolulu Board of Realtors. All material is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Any copying or distribution of this material herein is STRICTLY UNAUTHORIZED without express written permission from the Author.


The views and information contained are not provided or endorsed by Oceanic Time Warner Cable or any its affiliates. The content provided is for general information and entertainment purposes only. Please seek professional advice before acting on any information contained within this web site. Any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.


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