Analysis  Predictions Sales Inventory by Neighborhood




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Aloha All:

The Map

The Map above represents some of the many Neighborhoods on Oahu that identify the % of Inventory that has just gotten an Accepted Offer as compared with Total Inventory For Sale in this Neighborhood. In my 'opinion' this is a much better way to track what is 'really happening' than looking at Sold Data that 'other' Realtors will present to you. The Sold data you have to realize is for the most part 45-50 days Old. The listings with Just Accepted Offers (ACS) are only 3 Days Old. This gives you a Clearer Indication of Demand vs. Supply.

Change of Life Style

There is one significant difference in all the stats this year compared to any other time I can remember. If there is going to be a 'constant' in the years to come it's going to be about Condos and Town Homes. There is a dramatic shift of sales occurring from SFH's to Condos and Town Homes. I don't think this is something that has just come onto the radar and then will be gone. No... I think this is a CHANGE OF LIFESTYLE in Sales to come. Single Family Homes right now are going into Escrow at over $900,000 as an AVERAGE! Forget about the 'Average Price for a Single Family Home' being at $759,000. That doesn't mean squat when you look at what is being bought! Think about it... "Avg. Price going into Escrow... $900,000+"... (3 Days Old Data), "Average Price Sold of a SFH is $610,000... (45 Day Old Data)... those who ARE buying SFH's are buying at the High End of the Market right now. Those that closed on their purchase in Feb.'07 were at an average price of $610,000. Sales for Feb. were 272 units. Sales in Dec.'06 were 346 units. That means they went into Escrow in late October and CLOSED in Dec.'06. "What have I been Telling You?...For Best Prices in Buying... Do It between Oct. and Dec.! The same holds true for Condos!

Meanwhile...


Look at the BLUE Color above in the Chart. Those are the Median Price Sold figures for Single Family Homes. Do you see a Trend there... .? YES! Median Price SOLD is going DOWN! Now look at the PURPLE Color above. That is the Median ASKING Price. You will see this come down too, but probably not till 3rd. Q.T.
 

Now in the graph above you don't see the same thing occurring like in the SFH's Graph. NOTICE the almost 'even', 'across the line' in the columns. NOTICE the Smaller Gap between the BLUE and the PURPLE columns compared to what you see in the SFH's Graph.

Although the Number or Units Sold in Condos dropped again the Month of Feb. you have to also notice that the drop is not as much as previous months and then you have to look at the D.O.M. (Days On Market-How many Days it takes to get an Accepted Offer) Although it is increasing... you have to see the differences between the SFH Graphs and those for Condos.

I strongly feel that we are now in the "Age of the Condo" especially True for us in Hawaii! If I am going to put "My Money" some place... I would put it in Condos!


"Mike's "Hot Button"...

This was a learning lesson for me and I would like to share it with you. Occasionally I will take a 'Shot' at an Advertisement I see in the Sunday Newspaper Home Section. I usually will do this if I 'perceive' that the article was written to 'Lead the Reader' to make an incorrect assumption based upon the material being put forth.

This happens with a Great Amount of Frequency! Because, as I have said before... THESE ADS ARE PAID FOR REAL ESTATE COMPANIES! These 'Advertisements' are in the form of a 'Market Data Story.'

Recently I contacted the Top A.M. and F.M. Radio Stations as well as the Editors of the Top Printed Publications in Honolulu to explore a 'sharing' of what I perceive to be 'Honest' information to the public.

The Result?.....Nada, Zip, Nothing... NO REPONSE!
Now, let's be 'practical' here. Radio Stations and Printed News are in the Business of making Money. That's Fair. Anyone can understand this. These businesses are NOT in the business for Public Education.

The 'Reality' of this situation is simply this... Why should these businesses 'take a chance' of 'annoying' a PAID SPONSOR who pays 'through the nose' for Advertising? It's simply Not Going To Happen and Makes Bad Business! Understandable!

Like I said... it was a learning lesson for me! So with that in mind... I would like to ask you all, if you agree, to applaud Oceanic Time Warner Cable and CONGRATULATE and THANK THEM for allowing Authors such as myself and others to appear Monthly in their "Around Hawaii" features WITHOUT PAID SPONSORSHIP! I do not pay Oceanic Cable a Dime for anything but my cable service. These Columns are a True Benefit to all of us. Let's not lose them!

Much Aloha!
Mike Gallagher/ Realtor/ RE/Max Kailani 237-5300 Office.

If you have questions or need a MONTHLY CUSTOMIZED
REPORT on any Neighborhood...
JUST EMAIL ME... mikeg@hawaii.rr.com

And Do Visit

http://www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com/home.asp

You will not be disappointed!

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