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What's Really Happening in the Oahu Real Estate Market July '08 2nd. Quarter Results

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Oahu Single Family Homes

The above map of Oahu will give you a sense of what has transpired in the last month.
 
Keep in mind that the Red Arrow is for SFH’s and the Green Arrow is for Condos. It’s position, either pointed up or down indicates whether this area is below or above the Average Market Conditions for all of Oahu.
 
The text box in the upper right hand corner indicates current market conditions for all of Oahu.

When looking at the individual areas such as Makakilo or Kailua each area has two important boxes containing current ACS% rate and Average For Sale and Average Sold Prices separated by a /. For SFH’s the Avg. For Sale Price will be green. The Avg. Sold Price will be in red. For Condos, the Avg. For Sale Price will be in pink and the Avg. Sold Price will be in blue.
 
Note that ACS%’s are a representation of how well a particular area is doing. It represents the number of homes that are in Escrow with a Just Accepted Offer or A.C.S. as a % to the total inventory For Sale. I prefer to track trends this way over tracking Sold Data because sold data is mostly 45+ days old data. ACS data is only 4 days old. This will tell us where the market is headed in any particular area much better.
 
Enough said on the Map but if you have any questions please email me. My contact info is on the back of this report.
 
For the June 2008 we now can see where we have been for the past 6 months and where we are headed. Just a side note I want you remember for now, come October we will be in a ‘A Whole New Ball Game.’ Beginning in October and entering into 2009 will show little comparison to the market we have seen so far for 2008.

The demand for Oahu’s SFH’s continues to slide and the number of sales are off by –31% for past 12 months. The current ACS is 16% and is –33% less than a year ago.


At the same time demand is dramatically slowing the inventory has risen +12% over the past 12 months and is up another +2% for June over May. This sounds bad, but wait, it’s much worse for Condos.


 SFH Avg. For Sale Price for June is $726,500 but this is only –2% over the past 12 months.


 
SFH’s Avg. Sold Price is $629,000 and is –8% over the past 12 months. So you say to yourself “that’s a difference of $97,500.” Why? 1) There is a disproportionate amount of inventory in the $1,000,000+ range for sale. 2) Buyers are mostly purchasing in the low end price ranges.


 
What I consider ‘unusual’ is the D.O.M. or Days On Market. D.O.M. is 39 days and is –5% over the past 12 months. D.O.M. is the time it takes for a home to get an offer accepted. This is sort of a gage of how old the inventory for sale is. You might think that 39 days is pretty good and I agree, but not many neighborhoods are this low in D.O.M. and to tell you the truth I don’t know where the heck the Honolulu Board of Realtors is getting this number from as I just don’t see it. I can only ‘assume’ it’s correct.
 
But I digress from the main point concerning D.O.M. and that is the market is fast. In other words, what little sales we do have, they are moving quickly and this has not changed over the past 12 months and during this Summer Peak Season inventory is selling faster and faster.


 
A word about Withdrawn & Expired Listings. The Editor of The Honolulu Advertiser recently suggested to his Real Estate Reporter Mr. Andrew Gomes that this category really had no bearing on declining sales rates. I totally disagree. As the sales decline to the tune of –31% for SFH’s and –35% for Condos the “W&E’s” are rising.
 
My point is that this data is important to keep track of as it offers ‘real time’ indication of price drops in For Sale Price.


 

 

Oahu Condos

 

The demand for Condos is slightly higher than SFH’s with an ACS of 17% but keep in mind this % is –23% over the past 12 months.


 
The Median For Sale Price is $349,000 and –3% over the past 12 months but the Median Sold Price is $330,000 and is –14% over the past 12 months. Now I must say the last June sales were extraordinary.

 


 
Sales are –35% over the past 12 months, inventory is +15% over the past months and D.O.M. is 40. D.O.M. for Oahu’s Condos just like for Oahu’s SFH’s is low and the market is moving quickly. So although sales are way off, actually a really scarry –35% and inventory is up, the amount of time for an Oahu Condo to get an accepted offer is short. Inventory for sale is moving quickly. I can only presume that the reason for this is that buyers are snapping up bargains right now. The sales are mostly coming from two different, although great price ranges between $200,000 to $299,999 and $300,000 to approximately $399,999. The reason why these two price ranges are selling the most are:

1) Most buyers are choosing to invest in the lowest price points, obviously because they are more affordable and often come with little or no amenities such as pools etc which means the Monthly Maintenance Fees are lower than most. This is an importantly consideration especially in Today’s Economic climate in which we are experiencing double digit increases in Fuel, Electricity and Sewer & Water. These rising costs should be taken as a sign ever increasing Condo Maintenance Fees in the years to come.

 2) There are many buyers leaving the low end of the price range and trading up into more amenities and larger sized units and are usually Town Homes which unfortunately this type of Condo gets lumped into the general overall category of Condos.


Once again a word on W&E’s or Withdrawn and Expired Listings. The number or W&E’s for June was 369 and this is +22% over the past 12 months and +7% over May’s number.

I believe this to be an important category to keep track of in anyone’s endeavors to stay up to date with the latest market trends and more importantly to help you decide which way the market is headed and how fast.
 
It’s not easy to obtain this data. In fact the only place I know where you can get it is from...me. If you don’t see this info on my website for the area you are looking for I don’t mind if you email me. I will send you the info from the Honolulu Board of Realtors within 24 hrs.
 
I wish you all Much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher

Broker in Charge, RE/MAX Honolulu

Additional Graphs from Around the Island

Please remember that these numbers and information contained in this report are deemed accurate but not guaranteed. All Buyers and Sellers should use their own judgement in drawing conclusions from this article and are encouraged to do their investigation and analysis.

I hope you have enjoyed this report. It was long in the making and if you have any questions, you can email me directly at Mikeg@hawaii.rr.com or visit my Website at www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com

Much Aloha
Mike Gallagher
Broker in Charge, RE/MAX Honolulu
808-384-9015 or 951-3200
1357 Kapiolani Blvd. Suite #870, Honolulu, Hi. 96814


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