It has been an interesting year in Real Estate for Oahu and all over the Islands. There really is not much difference between what has been happening on Oahu as compared to the Outer Islands. It’s all pretty much the same.
Sales for the year were actually pretty good. In the beginning of the year it was a little concerning not knowing what was going to happen in the relatively new Buyer’s Market. Questions such as “Are Prices going to Hold, are prices going to go down, are prices going to go down so fast that it will look like they are falling out of the sky?” All of these questions were heavily on the minds of most Realtors and Consumers alike.
As we entered the first quarter of ’07 as we all collectively held our breath, it became apparent that none of what was being reported in the Mainland was happening in Hawaii. This was perplexing to most folks and so we waited…we waited expecting the worst to happen because what the heck, it was happening in the Mainland, right?
By the end of the 1st quarter we finally realized that our market was just not going to follow the trends of the Mainland and everyone started to relax…until the dire financial mortgage news hit the streets. This news shook us all up as now we were concerned that there just wasn’t going to be any mortgage money available, the lenders were tightening up all the credit standards and we were anticipating a big drop out of potential buyers. Well, this didn’t happen either in Hawaii.
What Did Happen…
(Due to article submission guidelines this report is based upon 11 months’07)
There was a slight drop in both Condo and Single Family Home sales between the months of November’06 vs. November’07 equaling -10% for Condos and -16% for Single Family Homes in units sold.
Total unit sales for Single Family Homes were off by -8.3% and Condo/Town Home unit sales were off -13.1%. Overall Oahu combined unit volume was off by -11.3% as of the end of November vs. last year.
Total combined SFH and Condo/Town Homes $ Volume went up down by -7.5%. Total $ Volume went down for Single Family Homes by -6.2% while the Total $ Volume of Condos & Town Homes went down by -9.2%.
The doom & gloom folks who thought prices were going to rapidly come down were incorrect. It’s just not going to happen with Hawaii as an internationally renowned destination. Now this is not to say that certain neighborhoods on Oahu went into the tank on equity and their Average Sold Prices dropped. They did, but many others went up in price as well.
The biggest losers in Single Family Units Sold are:
Makaha -22.4% - Prices are too high
Makakilo -19.6% - Prices are too high
Pearl City-Aiea -19.1% - Prices are too high
Aina Haina-Kulioulu -18.3% - Prices are too high and Low Inventory
Hawaii Kai -16.1% - Prices are too high
Ewa -13.5% - Prices are too high
North Shore -12.8% - Prices are too high
Windward Coast -11.1% - Prices are too high
Mililani -9% - Prices are too high and Low Inventory
Waipahu -5.6% - Prices are too high
The biggest losers in Single Family Homes in Median Sales Price drop are:
North Shore -13.4% - Prices are too high
Windward Coast -11% - Prices are too high
The biggest winners in Single Family Units Sold increase is:
Waialae-Kahala +13.4% - Major Popularity and Sellers mostly get their price
Kaneohe +8.2% - Very Popular because of Price and Sellers mostly get their price
Moanalua-Kalihi +7.1% - Very Popular because of Price and Sellers mostly get their price
The biggest losers in Condo/Town Home Units Sold are:
Windward Coast -48% - Prices are too high
Makaha-Nanakuli -44.7% - Prices are too high
North Shore -31.3% - Prices are too high
Ewa -31% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
Wahiawa -27.7% - Prices are too high
Makakilo -27.3% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
Pearl City-Aiea -25.6% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
Waipahu -24.4% - Prices are too high
Kapahulu-Kuliouou -13.9% - Prices are too high
Moanalua-Salt Lake -13.7% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
The biggest losers in Condo/Town Home Median Sales Price drop are:
Hawaii Kai -4.4% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
Ewa -4.6% - Prices are too high and too much inventory For Sale
Wahiawa -4.3% - Prices are too high
Mililani -3.5% - Prices are too high and Mililani Mauka was preferred choice
The biggest Single Family Home winners in Unit Volume Sold:
Waialae-Kahala +13.4% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data and popular neighborhood
Kaneohe +8.2% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data
Moanaloa-Kalihi +7.1% - Very Popular prices and low inventory For Sale
Honolulu +4.1% - Very Popular prices and low inventory For Sale
The biggest Single Family Home winners in Median Sales Price Increase are:
Wahiawa +8.9% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data
Makaha-Nanakuli +6.9% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data
Aina Haina-Kuliouou +5.6% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data and low inventory for sale
The biggest Condo/Town Home winners in Unit Volume Sold are:
Kalihi-Palama +12.2% - Very Popular prices and low inventory For Sale
Ala Moana-Kakaako +8.5% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data
The biggest Condo/Town Home winners in Median Sales Price Increase are:
Windward Coast +84.6% - Prices are very high, miscuing the data
Ala Moana-Kakaako +44.8% - Prices are high, miscuing the data & newly built inventory added
Down Town Nuuanu +14% - Very Popular prices and low inventory For Sale
Moanalua-St. Lake +8% - Very Popular prices and low inventory For Sale
Now, another way to look at this…
What’s Really Happening? In some of these Neighborhoods
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 3,642 / ’07 = 3,339
Almost across the board
Not the best %
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 6,826 / ’07 = 6,802
Almost across the board
Much better %
January’08 is going to be huge!
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 156 / ’07 = 126 Low sales rate
Median Sold Prices actually went down
These are Asking Prices
High Withdrawn & Expired Listings rate
High to low sales rate
Median Sold Prices actually went up
High to low Asking Prices
3rd. Qt. High to low Withdrawn & Expired Listings
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 254 / ’07 = 213
Almost across the board but heavily miscued by higher priced listings for sale
Large rise in Median Sold Price because of higher priced homes selling
Big difference between Asking Price and Sold Price
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 235 / ’07 = 233
Large increase in Asking Prices
Small difference between Asking Price and Sold Price
January’08 we will see a large amount
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 636 / ’07 = 550 Low Sales rate
High to low
High to low
Small difference between Asking Price and Sold Price
3rd. Qt. High to low rate
Same period Jan. to Nov. 30th. Sales: ‘06 = 466 / ’07 = 322 Low Sales rate
Low to high
High to low
Very large total numbers
What you are seeing here is definitely a slow down of sales in both Single Family Homes and Condo/Town Homes in ’07. However the rate of decline is much larger for SFH’s than it is for Condos. The % of Sold Price to List Price is much lower than Condos as well as sellers simply have not been able to get for their homes what they thought they could. Apparently agents just went along with the Seller’s Sales Price at the time of the Listing was taken or the agents simply didn’t know any better and the result was an overpriced home hitting the market. This is why Days On Market (D.O.M.) have gone up and their were many Withdrawns which indicated a lot of price changes as well as a lot of Expired Listings where they simply pulled from the market.
Condo/Town Homes slowed but the prices the Sellers got for their units were much better and more realistically priced when they came onto the market as the Sellers were able to overall get a much higher % of Sold Price vs. List Price.
In addition to this the sales emphasis this year has been on Condo/Town Homes as the preferred choice of most investors and not Single Family Homes. One obvious reason for this is not just the much higher price for a SFH but most investors were figuring correctly that SFH prices were going to come down. In fact they did, but not really anywhere near where some were figuring they were going to drop to.
Real Estate Annalists are predicting the ’07 sales trend to be roughly the same for ’08. They are not expecting any sharper declines in unit or $ volume sales than what was turned in for ’07.
I quoted at the beginning of this article Total Combined Unit Volume and Total Combined $ Volume for Single Family Homes and Condo/Town Homes. They were -11.3% for Unit Volume and -7.5% for $ Volume.
I would pay much attention to the Unit Volume Sales than the $ Volume as the $ Volume was inflated to begin with as a much larger % of Single Family Homes priced well over $1,000,000 were taking up so much of the For Sale Inventory as compared to lower priced For Sale Inventory.
11.3% - Is the # you want to remember for results from ’07.
I sincerely hope you have enjoyed this report and I wish you all much Aloha and Happy New Year!
I want to thank everyone for their continued support, my clients, my friends and most of all my Editor!
You can visit my website for additional information at:
Until the next time, I wish you all much Aloha! Mike Gallagher, Broker in Charge RE/MAX Honolulu
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