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What Are the Odds of Selling?

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What are the odds of selling?

What Are the Odds of Selling?

Very little attention has been paid to “What are the Odds of Selling My Property?” in this market, in this Neighborhood and in any particular price range. I believe the reason for this is two-fold:

  1. The General Public does not have access to this information from any source other than obtaining it from a Realtor and finding a Realtor who has this information at their fingertips is almost non-existent.
  2. Realtors do not specifically involve themselves in this aspect of the business and in my opinion, nor do they want to, for if they did, it would be readily apparent to Sellers, that whatever machinations the Realtor goes through in selling your property results in the Seller suddenly realizing that there is “No Magic Realtor”, you need the “Right Realtor.”

“There are no major differences how Realtors sell homes.”
The one consideration that stands head and shoulders above any other consideration in selling a home is the price, and very few Realtors analyze the Odds of Selling your Home at any given price range or neighborhood. Nor do most Realtors do an in depth analysis of any particular market as I do.

Beachside home.

To illustrate this point here is an assessment of “Beachside”, an upscale Neighborhood in Kailua:

  • Current Number of Listings for Sale: 15
  • Total $ Value of all listings if sold at Full Price: $71,159,000.00
  • Total $ Amount of Price Reductions, all For Sale so far: -$15,273,500 or -21%.
  • Total Time on the Market for all 15 For Sale Listings combined: 175 Months or 5,250 days approximately or 11.66 months per Listing.

Out of all 15 Current for Listings there have been 15 Re-Listings usually accompanied by Price Reductions. This means the Average Number of time listed are two.

The number of times each For Sale Owner hired the same Realtor when they Re-Listed: 13 times or an Average of .87 per Listing. That is almost everyone single one of the Listings.

Considering the total time on the market is an Average of 12 months, an Average of 100% Relisted and almost all of the For Sale Listings using the same agent again if they Re-Listed, with an Average Price Reduction of -$1,018,233 per listing. You might ask yourself “Why on earth would these owners use the same agents again?” Regardless of the market conditions the number one priority is to price the home to sell and to accomplish this goal, you start here:

Kailua SFH Oct 2010 Odds at Selling $1,000,000+

The above graph tells us what the “Odds” are in selling a home in Kailua price over $1,500,000. The odds are only 5%.

If this is the case then I think you see why it is so important to price a home to sell and to sell aggressively.

Let us take a look at what did sell in the past 10 months in Kailua Beachside.

17 Kailua Beachside Homes have sold in the past 10 months. Total combined sales are $43,893,000 or an Average of $2,581,941.

Total combined time on the market before selling: 96 Months or 5.6 Months per Listing until Sold. This is very interesting considering the current homes on the market For Sale right now are averaging almost 1 Year on the market and they still have not sold.

After looking at each of the sales in detail I can tell you honestly within this group of agents who sold their client’s properties 7 of the agents (41%) sold their clients homes in One Month or Less and this is due to their skills in correctly pricing the properties to begin with and artful negotiations.

Combined Price Reductions ending in Final Sold Price totaled -$8,277,999 or -$486,941 per home sold. There were 10 homes Sold (or 59% of all Listings Sold) that were priced $1,999,999 or Less. For these 10 homes the total amount of Dollars in Price Reductions or difference between List Price and Sold Price was -$1,183,999 or -$118,400 per home. This was a fantastic job well done by these agents and sellers when compared with the current For Sale Listings; you need to draw your own conclusions.

Draw your own conclusions.

“What does this mean to you?”

  1. Sell your home for more money through less or zero price reductions.
  2. Sell your home quickly in one month or less.
  3. Close on time.

“How do you do this?”

You price your home correctly and work with a Realtor who knows how to do this. A Realtor who knows the market, knows the values and familiar with the “Odds of Selling Your Home.”

You may call me or email me for a Free Consultation if you are thinking about selling your home correctly:

A couple of points to consider in looking at Kailua Overall:

The Honolulu Board of Realtors when reporting Sold Price to List Price %’s how many times the same home is Re-Listed or whether or not it had previous price reductions.

Kailua SFH October 2010 sold at full price or more $1M-$1.5M

Kailua SFH Oct 2010 % sold at full price or more $900K-$1M

Kailua SFH Oct 2010 sold at full price or more $800K-$900K

Kailua SFH Oct 2010 % sold at full price or more $700K-$800K

Kailua SFH Oct 2010 % sold at full price or more $600K-$700K

“Odds of Selling Your Homes Around The Island”

Oahu SFH year to date Odds selling All Price Ranges

It is kind of scary when you look at it like this isn’t it? We have to realize and “come to grips” with the reality that so many listings come onto the market each year and only so many sell.

In this case, the total amount of Listings Year to Date is 12,652.
Year to Date Total Sales is 2,453.

The same is true by each Neighborhood on the Island as well as each Condo Complex.

Oahu Condo Year to Date Odds Selling All Price Ranges

For Condos, the total amount of Listings Year to Date is: 17,754.
Year to Date Total Sales: 3,218.

Mililani Mauka SFH Year to Date Odds of Selling All Price Ranges

Mililani Mauka Condo Year to Date Odds Selling All Price Ranges

Mililani Mauka Condo October Odds Selling $300K-$400K

Hawaii Kai SFH Oct 2010 % sold at full price or more All Price Ranges

Hawaii Kai SFH Year to date odds selling All Price Ranges

Hawaii Kai Condo Year to Date odds selling All Price Ranges

It is my desire that you have seen the benefits of the report and that if you have any questions, please contact me.

Mike Gallagher, Broker in Charge, Abe Lee Realty
Ethics Complaints Review Committee Member, Honolulu Board of Realtors
808-384-9015 Web: 

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