In RED are the total accumulated sales Year to Date for Single Family Homes, and in BLUE are the same for Condos. Next to the unit sales are the Average Sold Price for Single Family Homes in RED, and the same for Condos in BLUE.

When you get right down to it, there really is not much Distressed Inventory on Oahu anymore, and the only significant trends in Distressed properties currently For Sale on Oahu is that their For Sale Prices are higher and unit sales are less, than when I first started tracking these numbers for Distressed Properties back in year 2009.

2010

This all looks good, but we need to take into account a couple of events that have taken place over the past years:

1. Honolulu Legislation to curtail Foreclosures
2. Shadow Inventory

For more about #1, Hawaii Legislation to curtail Foreclosures:
TheGardenIsland.com or HonoluluWeekly.com

For more about #2, The Shadow Inventory:
CoreLogic.com

Reading the above articles will provide you with a wealth of knowledge that few bother to explore and will also provide you with valuable insight into the current real market conditions.

In short, Hawaii Legislation to curtail Foreclosures has stopped many owners from losing their homes unnecessarily but has also created a huge backlog of Pending Foreclosures not only in Hawaii but all across the Country to an approximate total of 1,600,000 homes.

This Pending Foreclosure inventory has decreased somewhat over the course of this year but besides the obvious huge amount of homes yet to be foreclosed, the savvy investor is aware of the Pending Foreclosures (Shadow Inventory) and the downward effect it is currently having on home prices as well as future home prices.

North Shore Condos, Kapolei Condos and Hawaii Kai Single Family Homes are the only areas with Months of Supply above six months. The Year to Date Months of Supply for Oahu Single Family Homes is currently at 2.78 months and for Condos it is at 2.74. There is nothing to be really alarmed about in considering the amount of Distressed Properties on Oahu except in the areas I have noted with excess of six months and the aforementioned words of caution concerning the Hawaii Legislation to curtail Foreclosures and the Shadow Inventory.

By the end of the year the Months of Supply, of course, will increase due to more listings coming onto the market and the lower, seasonal unit sales which are expected at this time of year. When January and February arrive of 2012 we will probably see a rise in Months of Supply for Oahu and there may be some trouble spots, but overall investors have snapped up so many Distressed properties on Oahu that I do not see any problems for the foreseeable future.

Unit sales have slowed way down due to the lack of inventory and sales and will further slow down due to Hawaii Legislation and the typical lower unit sales expected at this time of year.

However, we can expect a rise in unit sales by the end of the year, probably in November and early December due to the amount of Distressed homes in Escrow right now.

I have prepared a couple of graphs I term Multi Graphs below to illustrate:

There are sharp rises in homes going into Escrow for the month of September and this especially true for Condos. We can expect to see a huge increase in Condo Recorded Sales in November and December.

One can see how sharp a rise in inventory or Months of Supply at the end of the year in December 2010, but in the case of year 2010, the Months of Supply was already much higher in October and November than what can be anticipated for this year months of November and December 2011.

Now you can clearly see what the conditions are for Distressed Properties on Oahu and their relatively small impact upon our current market conditions.

It also obvious that the price range most buyers are choosing to invest in for Single Family Homes is the $400,000-$499,999 price range. For Condos, the most popular price range is the $200,000-$249,000 range.

It is likewise obvious where most of this inventory is located; it is almost exclusively located on the West Side of the Island in and around Kapolei and the rest of the Ewa Plain.

Large inventories of Condos are For Sale in Metro-Honolulu as well as the Waipahu Area.

It is my hope that you have enjoyed this report and that if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.

It is not in my business plan to help owners of Distressed or near Distressed properties sell their homes but I can in all probability, answer most of your questions and suggest Realtors that are properly trained and have ample experience to help you if the need arises.

I would like to add a word of caution to those who might possibly find themselves in a Short Sale or Foreclosure situation, and that is you must do your best to seek out all the facts you can before making a decision to sell your home. Short Sales (owing more than you can sell for) and Foreclosures have many Rules and Regulations attached to them and they often can be difficult to understand and confusing. Seek out the best possible advice before you take any action. I can also suggest where to start to find this advice if you need it.

I wish you all much Aloha and I want to thank you for your years of readership.

Mike Gallagher, Mike Gallagher Real Estate, Inc.
808-384-9015, Mikeg@hawaii.rr.com
www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com