The Hawaiian winter surf season of 2009/2010 was one for the ages, and El Nino deserves most of the credit.  You see, when the El Nino climatic influence takes hold, it serves as the incendiary device which ignites the powerful natural engines that birth huge long-duration storm systems in the North Pacific.  And from these swarthy tempests emanate the giant groundswells that march down towards our trembling north and west facing shores.  The world’s best big wave riders converge with these great bands of energy and the result is hallowed surfing history.

To preface wave size references as you read on, know that in the argument-filled world of surfing, there are two opposing rationales for measuring wave height; 1) The “face height scale”, recognized by most as the most logical measurement, calculates the distance (in feet or meters) from the wave trough at the bottom, on up to the peak of its crest at its top. 2) The “Hawaiian scale”, no doubt influenced by defiant Hawaiian bravado, basically cuts the face height scale in half. Personally, I just have a lot of trouble seeing all kinds of kooks out there going around saying “Yeah Dude, I surfed a 20 foot wave!”, so like many locals who’ve been conditioned to use the Hawaiian scale, I apply it heretofore. Any way you cut it, we all saw heaps of bloody giant waves last winter and between both camps, that consensus is undisputed.

For the first time in many years, the number of rideable days at Waimea Bay in the 18’ + range went into the double digits.  Note that these are days with rideable conditions, featuring ideal winds, swell direction, etc, not just big waves.  Typically, Waimea is ridden at proper size on one or two, maybe three or four days per winter, tops.  In the midst of last year’s dramatic episodes, long time North Shore observers say that the one of the largest paddle-in waves ever was ridden on December 7th, and the most dramatic Quiksilver Eddie Aikau contest ever was run the following day in pulsing 20’-25’ bomber sets, The O’Neill World Cup opening rounds were started in maxed out 12’-18’ Sunset Beach, Peahi on Maui topped 35’+, and hardcore tow-in surf teams across the state were busy, busy, busy!  The biggest single wave I’ve ever witnessed in the flesh was last December at a deep, blue water westside Oahu outer reef.  It was a nippy early morning, with glassy conditions, breaking ¾ of a mile out to sea, I’d been watching for a half hour and nobody was out (major tow surf potential this place!) to scale the wave size with, but the utter slow motion descent of the pitching lip coming off the main peak indicated a wave very comfortably within the 25’-30’+ range.  The thing was just m-a-s-s-i-v-e in every definition of the word, closing out the coastline for a mile in each direction as it rumbled off left and right in a kind of pyroclastic and primordial fashion, and I was fortunate enough to see one like it in my lifetime. Wow.

“By some measures, this past winter's El Nino was not as strong as past events, but qualitatively it was up there with the winters of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, which were both very strong El Nino events,” said UH Oceanography Professor Roger Lukas, who last Fall accurately foresaw the big wave bounty of 2009/2010.

When El Nino occurs, it creates an expansive swath of warm ocean surface water that piles up in the Eastern Pacific, off the northwest region of coastal South America.  This phenomenon creates a myriad of reactive oceanographic and atmospheric responses in the Pacific Ocean and the Earth as a whole, but for Hawaii it generally means warmer temperatures, lighter winds, less rain, increased threat of hurricanes, and giant winter surf.  According to Lukas, El Nino is a cyclical event that occurs approximately every 3-5 years, so the hope here is that all you big water demons got your fill until at least 2013 or so.

I checked in with National Weather Service swell forecasting guru Pat Caldwell to find out where the winter of 2009/2010 stacked up against past El Nino years for big swells.  He sent me some fascinating statistics for 1968/1969 – 2009/2010.  Within this amazingly detailed 30 year record, the stronger El Nino years in this period were 1972, 1982, 1991, and 1997.

It’s interesting how 2009/2010 settles in the middle of the pack for El Nino winters in Hawaii in this extensive study.  I’d have thought that last season ranked right up there with the heaviest winters, but there’s no denying the hard data.  It’s understandable that as the years pass, the big surf episodes of 10, 20, 30, and 40 years ago could become less vivid in the memory.  However, I do clearly remember 1982 as a winter of giant everything, with Hurricane Iwa nearly blowing Hawaii (and my family’s house) clean off the map, and me surfing a lot of places other than the North Shore because it was frequently huge and stormy up there.  Pat’s report validates my memory, with 1982/1983 topping the heap with the “most giant surf episodes” in a season (9).

“As you can see (from the report), El Nino moderate and strong north shore years are mostly above for counts of both high (equal to or greater than 8’ Hawaii scale or about 15' peak face) and giant (Eddie contest type days; 20’ Hawaii scale, 40' peak face),” notes Caldwell, “the 2009/2010 season ranked 3rd and 4th for high and giant (surf), respectively.”

La Nina usually features the opposite effects of El Nino for Hawaii, with breezier tradewinds, cooler winter temps, heavier and more consistent rains, reduced likelihood for hurricanes, and a significantly less than exciting winter surf prognosis.

I asked Roger if the 2010-2011 La Nina and its less dramatic surf potential following right on El Nino’s heels is something of a typical pattern.  “There are two parts to this answer,” he said, “First is that we don't always have a La Nina event following an El Nino. Some El Nino events are followed by more-or-less normal conditions. However, when we do have La Nina events, they always setup closely behind an El Nino.  For example, the central equatorial Pacific went from being 1.5 Celsius warmer than normal in Dec-Jan (2009/2010) to 1.5 C colder than normal this August -September. We don't see La Nina develop after a sustained period of normal conditions on the equator.”

I’d noticed that the 2010 summer was unusually cooler and wetter, which was actually quite nice, and I’d noticed because we hadn’t had to use the home A/C all summer (we only use it to sleep on really hot nights anyway).  I haven’t had to water the lawn once (it’s maybe a tad dry but hanging in there).  I also noted that the south shore surf this summer was pretty lean.  It definitely had its moments, but I mostly found myself groveling ankle slappers on a longboard (ghrrrrr), stand up paddling flat water (hmphhh), or bodysurfing windblown Sandy Beach (it never disappoints!) to get my water time in.  Roger confirms that the 2009 summer surf in Hawaii was indeed negatively impacted by the post El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) transition into La Nina.  Many scientific sources confirm the presence of and strengthening La Nina conditions in the Pacific since this past August.

OK …so La Nina’s here … and big surf doesn’t always necessarily mean good surf.  But the million dollar question remains; what can surfers expect for the coming 2010-2011 winter surf season?  “No good news here, unfortunately,” Lukas cautions, “La Nina winters tend to have more storms in the Gulf of Alaska, and fewer off the Aleutian Islands. So, more north (direction) swells, not as many big northwest swells. Fewer typhoons (will be) recurving into the North Pacific, so early season North Shore (surf) is negatively impacted. Probably a wetter, windier winter than last year, but we could use the rain.”

The pickle we’re in is that most of the surfable reefs on Oahu’s west and northern shores are positioned in a way that most of them are best during swells with some degree of westerly component in them (W, WNW, NW, NNW).  The notoriously fickle Banzai Pipeline is a classic example of this stubborn obedience to the west swell window, and those buxom, recurving typhoons coming up off of Japan and Russia and metastasizing into west swells are going to be missed by thousands of teary-eyed surfers.  So unless the prospect of going right every day at windblown, muddy Laniakea, Kammieland, and a precious few other reefs with favorable swell windows appeals to you, Lukas’ call for predominantly northerly tilted swells wouldn’t seem to bode all that well for the majority of north and west side surfing grounds this winter.

Oh well, “things always have a way of working out” as the saying goes, and if nothing else … at least we got rain.

This article and the live broadcasts of the 2010 Vans Triple Crown of Surfing are dedicated to the memory of the late Andy Irons. 

My thanks to Roger Lukas of the UH Oceanography Department, and NOAA Data Centers Liaison and forecaster Pat Caldwell for their help with this article.

 

November on Oceanic SURF Channel

 

The North Shore surf season comes alive with the Vans Triple Crown of Surfing contest series and the world’s top pro surfers competing in the world’s best big waves LIVE on Oceanic digital channels 250 & 1250HD!  There are six events being televised live and in their entirety this year:

Men

1. Reef Hawaiian Pro, Haleiwa Ali’i Beach,11/12 - 11/23
2. O’Neill World Cup, Sunset Beach, 11/24 - 12/06
3. Billabong Pipeline Masters, Banzai Pipeline, 12/08 - 12/20

Women

1. Cholo’s Women’s Hawaiian Pro, Haleiwa Ali’i Beach, 11/12 - 11/23
2. Gidget Pro, Sunset Beach, 11/24 - 12/06
3. Vans “Duel for the Jewel”, Banzai Pipeline, 12/08 – 12/20

Subscribe to Oceanic digital and DVR services to record and see all the amazing Hawaiian surf action from the comfort of your own living room!  Call Oceanic at (808) 643-2100 for more information.

Oceanic Time Warner Cable is televising The 2010 Surfer Poll Awards live from the Turtle Bay Resort, and Oceanic customers can enter the contest to be our VIP guests at the show!

To celebrate its 40th anniversary in publication, Surfer Magazine is bringing the 2010 Surfer Poll Awards to the Turtle Bay Resort on Monday evening, December 6th, and it’s being televised LIVE on Oceanic SURF Channel!  Two very lucky Oceanic customers and their guests can come along with us to this prestigious invitation-only event by entering our online contest!  Runner up prizes will include free one-year subscriptions to Surfer Magazine. To enter the contest, go to www.oceanic.com/surferpollawards and fill in the online form.  Certain rules and restrictions apply, and the deadline to enter is Saturday, November 27th. For more on Surfer Magazine and The Surfer Poll, visit www.surfermag.com and www.surferpoll.com.

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